- Monday, 22 January 2018
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 23 January
There were no data releases from Australia yesterday. Next Wednesday’s CPI report is likely to show inflationary pressures in the Australian economy have stabilised, ANZ says. And that means the bank is sticking to its view that the RBA is on track to raise rates in May this year. The bank is forecasting a slight pickup in the quarterly rate of growth for headline inflation, while it expects core inflation will remain steady. The headline increase is likely to be driven by higher prices for petrol, domestic travel and tobacco.
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- Thursday, 18 January 2018
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 19 January
There were no major data releases from Eurozone yesterday. Over the last few days, several ECB officials have pushed back against the market's hawkish read of the record of last month's meeting. The policy direction and sequencing is clear. The risks of deflation have ended. Activity has strengthened and broadened. Inflation is still judged not to be on a sustainable and durable path toward the target. A rate hike will not be delivered until sometime after the purchases end. Most of the ECB has not been convinced by the hawks’ argument to specify a date certain to end the purchases.
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- Thursday, 18 January 2018
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 19 January
There were no major data releases from the UK yesterday. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said on Thursday that its monthly house price index rose to +8 in December from zero in November, which had been its lowest reading since March 2013. Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected the reading to stay unchanged, and none had forecast this big a rebound. British house price growth has slowed over the past year to between 2 and 5 percent, depending on the measure. This largely reflects weakness in London and surrounding areas, with bigger price rises in most of the rest of the United Kingdom.
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- Thursday, 18 January 2018
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 19 January
Yesterday's session brought Australian job figures. The Aussie economy added 34,700 jobs in December, massively ahead of the 15,000 forecast. Coming after a blockbuster set of November data this further surge might have been expected to boost the currency. But the devil appears to have been in the detail. Full-time jobs rose by ‘only’ 15,000, with part-time positions up by 19,500 (both were less than last month’s gains). The unemployment rate also edged up, to 5.5% from 5.4%. This was unexpected. Confusingly the overall participation rate did better, too, though. It edged up modestly to 65.7%.
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