GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 25 January

Friday was marked by Retail Sales and Public Sector Net Borrowing data. Compared with November 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 1.0%. Analysts were expecting 0.1% decrease. When comparing the 2015 annual data with 2014, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have increased by 4.5%. The amount spent in the retail industry decreased by 1.0% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 1.4% compared with November 2015. The value of online sales increased by 8.2% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 5.2% compared with November 2015.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 25 January

Sterling managed to rebound in the course of the Friday's session, despite weaker than expected UK Retail Sales figures. Pair even broke above 1.43 handle, but found area around 1.4350 level to be too resistive at the moment. As for Monday, with no major data releases we expect a bit steadier session in which resistive candles around 1.4350 and 1.4380 level in extension would offer short-term selling opportunity, while supportive candles around 1.4220 level would be short-term buying signal.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 25 January – 29 January

Events that marked the week:

Tuesday's session brought UK CPI and PPI figures. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in the year to December 2015, compared with a 0.1% rise in the year to November 2015. Analysts were anticipating 0.1% increase. Although this is the first month since January 2015 for which the rate has exceeded 0.1%, this continues the trend since early 2015 of the rate being very close to zero. Movements in transport costs, particularly air fares and to a lesser extent motor fuels, were the main contributors to the rise in the rate. Downward pressures from prices for alcohol and tobacco along with food and non-alcoholic beverages partially offset the rise.