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Events that marked the week:

Tuesday's session brought UK CPI and PPI figures. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in the year to December 2015, compared with a 0.1% rise in the year to November 2015. Analysts were anticipating 0.1% increase. Although this is the first month since January 2015 for which the rate has exceeded 0.1%, this continues the trend since early 2015 of the rate being very close to zero. Movements in transport costs, particularly air fares and to a lesser extent motor fuels, were the main contributors to the rise in the rate. Downward pressures from prices for alcohol and tobacco along with food and non-alcoholic beverages partially offset the rise.

The price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers, as estimated by the producer price index, continued to fall in the year to December 2015. Crude oil continued to drive down input prices, feeding through to a drop in output prices of petroleum products. Factory gate prices (output prices) for goods produced by UK manufacturers fell 1.2% in the year to December 2015, compared with a fall of 1.5% in the year to November 2015. The overall price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing (total input prices) fell 10.8% in the year to December 2015, from a fall of 13.1% in the year to November 2015.

 

Focus of Wednesday's session was on UK job data. For December 2015 there were 785,900 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This was: 4,300 fewer than for November 2015 and 95,400 fewer than for a year earlier but, the lowest since March 2008. Increase by 4,100 was expected. The unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over for September to November 2015 was 5.1%. This was: down from 5.4% for June to August 2015 and down from 5.8% for a year earlier but slightly lower than the pre-downturn trough of 5.2% for late 2007 to early 2008. Also, unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in November down from October's 5.2%.

 

Friday was marked by Retail Sales and Public Sector Net Borrowing data. Compared with November 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 1.0%. Analysts were expecting 0.1% decrease. When comparing the 2015 annual data with 2014, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have increased by 4.5%. The amount spent in the retail industry decreased by 1.0% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 1.4% compared with November 2015. The value of online sales increased by 8.2% in December 2015 compared with December 2014 and decreased by 5.2% compared with November 2015.

 

Separate report on Public Sector Net Borrowing beat market forecasts on decline to £10.1 billion and fell to £6.9 billion. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks decreased by £4.3 billion to £7.5 billion in December 2015 compared with December 2014. Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks at the end of December 2015 was £1,542.6 billion, equivalent to 81.0% of Gross Domestic Product; an increase of £53.2 billion compared with December 2014.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Prelim GDP (Thursday 10:30)

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