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GBP/USD suffered further losses with no help from the Bank of England. The jobs report is the primary event of the week.

The Bank of England left the rates unchanged and sent a cautious message. GBP/USD dropped below 1.3500 at one point on speculation that the BOE will stay pat for a long time. In the US, the dollar initially continued higher but eventually began retreating after inflation came out at 2.1% y/y against 2.2% expected. Has the dollar peaked?

Major events in the coming week:

  1. UK jobs report Tuesday, 8:30. The recent jobs report was disappointing. Jobless claims rose by 11.6K in March, worse than expected. Though the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in February, wages remained stuck at 2.8% (vs 3% as expected). Wages are expected to decelerate to 2.7% in March while jobless claims carry expectations for a rise of 13.3K in April. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at the lows of 4.2%.
  2. Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, 9:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney go to Parliament and will discuss the findings of the Inflation Report recently published. Carney will try not to say anything he did not already say, but the fresh jobs report could provide a basis for comments.
  3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 13:30. The Conference Board’s composite measure of the economy dropped by 0.4% in February and a similar figure is likely for March.
  4. Andy Haldane talks Thursday, 16:00. The BOE’s Chief Economist will be speaking in London and may provide some insights about the next steps of the Bank. Haldane is a known dove.

(All times are GMT)

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