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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 14 May - 18 May

Saturday, May 12 2018
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 14 May - 18 May

EUR/USD fell to new 2018 lows but managed to bounce after the US Dollar suffered its own disappointing data. GDP and inflation figures stand out during coming week.

German factory orders fell by 0.9% and added to the misery while the euro zone’s largest economy’s industrial output rose by 1%, better than expected. The data is not impressive, but at least not all in the red. In the US, inflation fell short of expectations with 2.1% on Core CPI and weighed heavily on the US Dollar. Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Draghi did not provide any news.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. German GDP: Tuesday, 6:00. Expected a fall from growth rate of 0.6% level to 0.4% for Q1.
  2. French Final CPI: Tuesday, 6:45. Preliminary rate of by 0.1% likely be confirmed in the final read.
  3. French Private Payrolls: Tuesday, 6:45.
  4. GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The Flash GDP version for Q1 2018 is expected to confirm the initial read of 0.4% q/q growth. However, if the German number surprises, expectations will change.
  5. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The ZEW institution publishes an early read on business confidence. Back in April, the score plunged from positive to negative territory, standing at -8.2 and reflecting pessimism. The figure for May is expected to be similar: -8 points.
  6. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 9:00. A bounce of 0.6% is predicted for March.
  7. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00.
  8. CPI: Wednesday, 9:00. A confirmation of the preliminary data is expected now.
  9. Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 12:00. The ECB President of the will speak in Frankfurt.
  10. German inflation data: Friday, 6:00. After a rise of 0.1% in March, Germany’s PPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. The Wholesale Price Index was flat in March and is forecast to rise by 0.2%.
  11. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. The euro-zone enjoys a broad current account surplus due to German exports. The surplus was 35.1 billion in February and a similar figure is likely in March.
  12. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The trade balance surplus stood at 21 billion euros in February and we may see a slightly higher number as Germany’s trade balance widened in March.

(All times are GMT)

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