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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 14 May - 18 May

Saturday, May 12 2018
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 14 May - 18 May

AUD/USD fell to new 5-month lows but turned a corner and ended the week where it started it. Australia’s jobs report is the key event during coming week.

Australian retail sales disappointed by remaining flat and home loans fell more than expected. However, the NAB Business Confidence increase from 8 to 10 points. The bigger driver was the US Dollar, which initially raged on, but eventually dropped after weak US inflation was the last straw in the camel’s back. This pulled the Aussie out of the abyss.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. Guy Debelle talks: Monday, 23:10 and Tuesday, 1:40. The Assistant Governor for Financial Markets will speak about the Australian Economy in Sydney and will later talk about reforms in setting benchmark interest rates in a speech broadcast to Hong Kong.
  2. RBA Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The RBA left interest rates unchanged once again in May and left the forecast upgrade to the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy. The minutes from the meeting may reveal more details than the bland statement.
  3. Chinese Industrial Production: Tuesday, 2:00. Australia’s No. 1 trading partner and a consumer of commodities saw its industrial output rise by 6% y/y in March. An acceleration to 6.4% is forecast for May.
  4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. One week later than originally scheduled, the Westpac Corporation will publish its 1200 strong measure of consumer confidence. After a drop of 0.6% in April, an increase may be seen in May.
  5. Wage Price Index: Tuesday, 1:30. Wages increased by 0.6% in Q4 2017 and are forecast to rise by the same quarterly scale in the first quarter of 2018.
  6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute fills in the gap for the government that publishes CPI data only once per quarter. MI showed a rise of 3.6% in March and a similar increase is likely now.
  7. Jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s job report for March disappointed with a minor increase of only 4.9K positions. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%. Expected are a gain of 20.3K jobs and unchanged unemployment rate at 5.5%.

(All times are GMT)

More in this category: « AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 7 May - 11 May GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 14 May - 18 May »

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