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AUD/USD had another down week but managed to recover after reaching new lows since December. Australian retail sales and the annual budget are eyed.

The US dollar continued raging on as the Fed remains on course to raise interest rates in June. A marginally dovish FOMC statement was unable to derail the greenback, nor did the unimpressive NFP report, which showed a slowdown in wage growth to 2.6%. However, the Australian dollar was able to fight back. The RBA did not rock the boat in its statement but is Monetary Policy Statement already included upgrades to various forecasts.

In addition, the trade balance, building approvals and private sector credit all beat expectations. Chinese data was also slightly better the forecasts, supporting the pair in its recovery.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 23:30. We may see a small dip from 57.2 points in March.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Monday, 1:30. A positive number shows that conditions keep on improving. A number similar to last month’s 7 is expected.
  3. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30.
  4. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. After two poor months, Australian retail sales recorded a rise of 0.6% in February. The economy is now projected to show slower growth of 0.2% in March.
  5. Chinese Trade Balance: Tuesday, 2:00. Australia’s No. 1 trade partner publishes its monthly trade balance report for April. A surprising deficit of 5 billion USD was recorded in March and a surplus of 27.5 billion is on the cards now.
  6. Annual Budget Release: Tuesday, 9:30 GMT. The Australian government publishes its annual budget and the important parts of it are the forecasts for growth, employment, and inflation. After the recent upgrade of the economic outlook by the RBA, the government may follow suit.
  7. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:20.
  8. Home Loans: Friday, 1:30. Home loans fell in the past three months, with a drop of 0.2% in February. Another drop of 2% is on the cards. Households are indebted and this weighs on the mortgage market.

(All times are GMT)

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