Major events in the coming week:
- Halifax HPI: Tuesday, 7:30. This leading indicator of house prices has surprised with a jump of 1.5% in March, far better than expected. A correction with a drop of 0.3% is expected for April.
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s early indicator of retail sales has finally shown an annual rise of 1.4% in March. A drop of 0.7% is predicted now.
- RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. This gauge showed a perfect balance between price increases and decreases. A deterioration is expected: a negative balance of -1%
- Manufacturing Production: Thursday, 8:30. Production fell by 0.2% in February. Another fall of 0.2% is on the cards. Industrial output is projected to rise by 0.1% m/m, repeating previous gain.
- Goods Trade Balance: Thursday, 8:30. Britain has a chronic trade deficit with a negative balance of 10.2 billion pounds in February. A wider deficit of 11.4 billion is projected for March.
- Construction Output: Thursday, 8:30. Output dropped by 1.6% in February and yet another drop of 2.1% is on the cards for March.
- Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. In addition to the rate decision and the MPC Meeting Minutes, the BOE also publishes its all-important Quarterly Inflation Report. Until a few weeks ago, the BOE was expected to raise rates in this May decision. Yet recent data have been very disappointing: GDP grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q1, PMI figures point to an upcoming slowdown and Governor Mark Carney hinted that rates are not coming so soon. Now it is expected that the BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50%. The focus will be on inflation and the messages about raising rates in the remainder of the year. If Carney and co. convey a message that the situation has worsened and that no hike is expected this year, the pound could extend its plunge.
- NIESR GDP Estimate: Thursday, during early European afternoon.
(All times are GMT)
