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Events that marked the week:

Focus of Tuesday's session was on UK CPI and PPI data. UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in the year to March 2016, compared with a 0.3% rise in the year to February. Analysts were predicting smaller increase by 0.3%. The rate has increased gradually since October 2015 although is still relatively low in the historical context. Rises in air fares and clothing prices were the main contributors to the increase in the rate between February and March 2016. These upward pressures were partially offset by a fall in food prices and a smaller rise in petrol prices than a year ago.

The price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers, as estimated by the producer price index, continued to fall in the year to March 2016. Factory gate prices (output prices) for goods produced by UK manufacturers fell 0.9% in the year to March 2016, compared with a fall of 1.1% in the year to February 2016. Core factory gate prices, which exclude the more volatile food, beverage, tobacco and petroleum products, rose 0.2% in the year to March 2016, compared with a rise of 0.1% in the year to February 2016. The overall price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing (total input prices) fell 6.5% in the year to March 2016, compared with a fall of 8.2% in the year to February 2016.

 

Thursday's session was marked by BoE interest rate decision and the following Minutes. The Bank of England has decided to hold rates at 0.5 percent once again, a record low for seven years. All nine members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold on to low rates amid concerns over global growth and uncertainty ahead of a Brexit vote. The bank has been in no hurry to raise rates, and, with uncertainty over the referendum on the U.K.'s membership of the European Union in June, many anticipate it will wait and watch for any impact from the decision on the UK economy.

 

The BoE Governor Mark Carney had warned in March that uncertainty over the EU referendum could hit the UK economy. It also added that the referendum may delay some spending decisions and depress growth. A Reuters poll of economists found that the BoE is expected to leave interest rates at a record low until 2017 amid fears of slowing global growth and inflation nowhere near target. The poll states that any hikes will be gradual and the initial 25 basis point increase may be followed by further moves in the second and fourth quarters of next year.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Claimant Count Change/Unemployment Rate (Wednesday 10:30)

Retail Sales (Thursday 10:30)

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