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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 18 April – 22 April

Saturday, Apr 16 2016

Events that marked the week:

From Eurozone, on Wednesday, Industrial Production data was published. In February 2016 compared with January 2016, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat. Analysts were expecting 0.6% decrease.The decrease of 0.8% in industrial production in the euro area in February 2016, compared with January 2016, is due to production of non-durable consumer goods falling by 1.8%, energy by 1.2%, durable consumer goods by 0.4% and capital goods by 0.3%, while production of intermediate goods remained stable.

Thursday brought Final CPI data. Euro area annual inflation was 0.0% in March 2016, up from -0.2% in February. In March 2015 the rate was -0.1%. European Union annual inflation was also 0.0% in March 2016, up from -0.1% in February. A year earlier the rate  was -0.1%.  The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés (+0.12 percentage points), package holidays (+0.09 pp) and rents (+0.07 pp), while fuels for transport (-0.60 pp), heating oil (-0.23 pp) and gas (-0.10 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

 

Friday was marked by Eurozone Trade Balance data. The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in February 2016 was €163.5 billion, an increase of 1% compared with February 2015 (€161.4 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €144.4 bn, a rise of 2% compared with February 2015 (€141.5 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €19.0 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in February 2016, compared with +€20.0 bn in February 2015. Analysts were expecting increase in surplus of €21.9bn. Intra-euro area trade rose to €141.0 bn in February 2016, up by 3% compared with February 2015.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment/ ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday 11:00)

Minimum Bid Rate/ECB Press Conference (Thursday 14:30)

French Flash Manufacturing PMI/French Flash Services PMI (Friday 9:00)

German Flash Manufacturing PMI/German Flash Services PMI (Friday 9:30)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 18 April – 22 April AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 25 April – 29 April »

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