Tuesday's session brought NAB Business Confidence data. The NAB Monthly Business Survey produced a strong result in March. A jump in both business conditions and confidence this month provides more assurance that the Australian economy is weathering the global challenges well, and is successfully transitioning through the end of the mining boom. Business conditions lifted to their equal highest level since 2008, while improvements are becoming more broad-based across the economy as the recovery gains traction.
“The lift in business conditions to these levels not only suggests that Australia is withstanding the uncertainty offshore, but that the recovery in the non-mining sectors of the economy have in fact stepped up a gear this month” said Mr Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist. The better business environment (and some soothing of financial market concerns) has helped to lift business confidence as well. The business confidence index increased 3 points in March (to +6), which is consistent with the long-run average, and an encouraging result given the overall global context.
There were no major data releases from Australia on Wednesday, however, from China, Trade Balance data was published. China’s exports jumped the most in a year and declines in imports narrowed, adding to evidence of stabilization in the world’s second-biggest economy. Overseas shipments rose 11.5% in dollar terms in March from a year earlier, compared with a 25 percent slump in February, when factories and offices were closed for a week-long holiday. Imports extended declines to 17 months with a 7.6% drop, data showed Wednesday. The trade surplus decreased to $29.9 billion, the least in a year.
Focus of Thursday's session was on Australian job figures. Australian employment increased 26,100 to 11,909,600 in a seasonally adjusted terms in March. Smaller increase by 18,600 was expected. Full-time employment decreased 8,800 to 8,180,400 and part-time employment increased 34,900 to 3,729,200. Unemployment decreased 7,300 to 723,100. Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.7%. Analysts were anticipating increase to 5.9%.
There were no data releases from Australia on Friday, but from China GDP and industrial Production figures were released. Gross domestic product rose 6.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, meeting the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and in line with the government’s growth target of 6.5% to 7% for the full year. New credit, industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales picked up in March and beat analysts’ forecasts. Industrial output expanded 6.8% in March from a year earlier and retail sales rose 10.5%.
This week markets will be looking at:
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Tuesday 3:30)