EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Thursday, Mar 17 2016

From Eurozone, yesterday, only Final CPI data was published. Euro area annual inflation was -0.2% in February 2016, down from 0.3% in January 2016. In February 2015 the rate was -0.3%. European Union annual inflation was also -0.2% in February 2016, down from 0.3% in January. A year earlier the rate was -0.3%. The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants and cafes (+0.13 percentage points), rents (+0.08 pp) and fruit (+0.06 pp), while fuels for transport (-0.49 pp), heating oil (-0.24 pp) and gas (-0.10 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

In the US session Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Current Account figures were released. In the week ending March 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level, mostly in line with market forecasts. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 259,000 to 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 268,000, an increase of 750 from the last week's level.

Separate report on Philly Fed Manufacturing Index showed that index increased from a reading of -2.8 in February to 12.4 this month, its first positive reading in seven months, well above predictions on increase to -1.4. Both the current new orders and shipments indexes also showed improvement this month. The current new orders index returned to positive territory, increasing 21 points to 15.7. Nearly 37 percent of the firms reported an increase in new orders this month.

Also, Current Account data was released. Current Account deficit decreased to $125.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 from $129.9 billion (revised) in the third quarter. Analysts were expecting decrease to $117 billion. The deficit decreased to 2.8% of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.9% in the third quarter. The decrease in the current-account deficit was accounted for by decreases in the deficits on goods and secondary income and an increase in the surplus on services. These changes were partly offset by a decrease in the surplus on primary income.

There will be no data releases from Eurozone tomorrow. In the US session Consumer Sentiment figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts are predicting increase to 92.1 points.

Figures to watch:

Prelim Consumer Sentiment (Friday 15:00)

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