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AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 21 March

Friday, Mar 18 2016

There were no major data releases from Australia on Friday. "Reaction to the FOMC's more cautious tone and downshift in its 2016 interest rate projects has continued to weigh on the U.S. dollar," Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior currency strategist Elias Haddad said. U.S. dollar weakness helped boost key commodities overnight, supporting the local unit. However, a strong Aussie dollar could hurt the growing services and tourism sectors, but also the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation forecasts, leading to expectations of a rate cut. "The RBA emphasized that inflation is likely to be the main driver of any further rate cuts in their minutes released on Tuesday," IG market analyst Angus Nicholson said.

In the US session Consumer Sentiment figures were released. Consumer confidence declined in the first half of March as lower-income Americans grew more concerned about prospects for the U.S. economy and higher gasoline prices. The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell to a five-month low of 90 from to 91.7 in February. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 92.2. The group’s measures of year-ahead and longer-term inflation expectations picked up.

 

There will be no data releases from Australia on Monday. In the US session Existing Home Sales figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts are predicting decrease to 5.32 million.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Existing Home Sales (Monday 16:00)

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