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Where is UK economy heading in 2018?

Where does the UK economy stand heading into 2018? Economists James Knightley and James Smith at Dutch lender ING have compiled a handy "dashboard" showing the health of six key indicators in the economy. The indicators — inflation, consumer spending, hiring, wage growth, investment, and manufacturing — provide a reasonable snapshot of where things stand right now.

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UK Unemployment Rate remains unchaged

There were 32.08 million people in work, 56,000 fewer than for May to July 2017 but 325,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.1%, lower than for May to July 2017 (75.3%) but higher than for a year earlier (74.4%). There were 1.43 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 26,000 fewer than for May to July 2017 and 182,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975. Read more...

UK CPI increased to 3.1%

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.8% in November 2017, unchanged from October 2017. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 3.1% in November 2017, up from 3.0% in October 2017; it was last higher in March 2012. The largest upward contribution to change in both the CPIH and CPI rates came from air fares which fell between October and November but by less than a year ago. Rising prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services, most notably computer games, also had an upward effect. Falling prices in the miscellaneous goods and services category (covering products such as travel goods and financial services) provided the largest offsetting downward contribution.

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Rightmove forecasts slowing in house prices rise in 2018

Home owners have had a good run, with every year since 2011 seeing a rise in the price of property coming to market, and the national average rise over those six years being 30.9%, equivalent to 4.6% per year. 2018 will continue the 2017 trend by being a real mixed bag of different price pressures both up and down, but the net result is that we forecast another year of a slowing in the pace of price rises. The peak in the cycle of rising prices was 2015’s annual jump of 7.4%.

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