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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May

Saturday, Apr 28 2018
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May

EUR/USD tumbled down as the US Dollar stormed higher and as Draghi did not provide any ammunition to the bulls. The ECB left its policy unchanged and acknowledged the slowdown. President Mario Draghi saw it as a temporary moderation but remained cautious and provided no news about announcing the end of QE.

This was not enough to battle the US Dollar, that surged alongside a rise in US bond yields. The 10-year yields topped 3% for the first time since 2011 amid upbeat data and a growing sense that the Fed is set to raise rates at a faster pace.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. German Retail Sales: Monday, 6:00.
  2. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. The amount of money in circulation, M3 Money Supply, dropped to 4.2% in February and is projected now: 4.1%.
  3. German CPI: Monday, 12:00. Germany CPI carries that largest weight in euro zone CPI.
  4. Manufacturing PMI data: Wednesday. 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, 7:50 Final French data, 7:55 final German data, and 8:00 final euro-zone data.
  5. Euro-zone GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. Euro-zone growth has slowed down or “moderated” according to ECB President Mario Draghi. After some of the bigger countries have reported mixed figures, the euro-zone is forecast to show a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% q/q.
  6. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 9:00. The euro-zone unemployment expected at 8.5%.
  7. Jens Weidmann talks: Wednesday at 15:40 in Manheim and Friday at 13:00 in Frankfurt. The President of the German Bundesbank may shed some more light on the slowdown/moderation.
  8. Spanish Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:00. A fall of 100.2K in unemployment is expected.
  9. Euro-zone inflation: Thursday, 9:00. The ECB has a “single needle in the compass” – headline inflation. It is expected to remain 1.3%y/y in April. However, core inflation is projected to drop from 1% to 0.9%. This may weigh on the euro and slow down the ECB’s exit from bond-buying.
  10. PPI: Thursday, 9:00. A repeat of the modest 0.1% rise is on the cards for March.
  11. French Trade Balance: Friday, 6:45. French trade deficit expected to be 5.1 billion.
  12. Services PMI data: Friday: 7:15 Spain, 7:45 Italy, final French 7:50, final German data 7:55, and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.

(All times are GMT)

More in this category: « AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 2 July - 6 July »

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