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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May

Saturday, Apr 28 2018
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May

AUD/USD fell sharply, reaching the lowest levels since December. A busy week sees the RBA dominating the scene.

Australian inflation disappointed with a rise of only 0.4% q/q on the headline and 0.5% on the core. This may keep the RBA from moving. In the US, 10-year yields crossed the 3% threshold, spurring a dollar shopping spree. US GDP beat expectations with an annualized rate of 2.3%.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 1:00. Expected to match March rise 0.1% in April.
  2. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Monday, early morning.
  3. Private Sector Credit: Monday, 1:30. Expected to stay at February levels of 0.4% for March.
  4. Phillip Lowe talks: Monday, time unknown. Just before the rate decision, the Governor of the RBA will speak in Adelaide at a dinner organized by the Bank.
  5. AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 22:30.
  6. Rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.50% once again. The RBA will likely be delighted with the recent slide in the A$ but disappointed with the unimpressive quarterly inflation and the not-so-great jobs report. The message may be somewhat more concerned, but a rate cut is not on the cards.
  7. Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 6:30. Australia is an exporter of commodities, making this indicator important. The gauge fell by 2.1% y/y in March and may show an upswing this time.
  8. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45. This independent 430-strong survey index is now expected to rise to 51.6 points from 51.0 earlier. Australia relies on exports to China.
  9. AIG Services Index: Wednesday, 22:30.
  10. Trade Balance: Thursday, 1:30. Australia enjoyed a trade surplus of 830 million A$ in February. A widening of the surplus is on the cards for March: 950 million.
  11. Building Approvals: Thursday, 1:30. After a drop of 6.2% in Feb, a correction of 1.1% is expected.
  12. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, 1:30. The RBA will have the last word of the week with its quarterly report. An outlook on inflation may provide clues to the next moves by the Bank.

(All times are GMT)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 April - 4 May »

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