Wednesday brought M3 Money Supply data. The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.0% in June 2016, after 4.9% in May, averaging 4.9% in the three months up to June. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate, including currency in circulation and overnight deposits (M1), decreased to 8.6% in June, from 9.1% in May. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) was less negative at -1.6% in June, from -2.0% in May.
Thursday brought German CPI and Unemployment Change data. The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be +0.4% in July 2016. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3% on June 2016.
German unemployment extended its decline in July, in a sign that Europe’s largest economy is showing resilience to uncertainty unleashed by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. The number of people out of work fell by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 2.682 million in July, data from the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg showed on Thursday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast a drop of 4,000. The jobless rate remained at a record low of 6.1 percent.
Friday was marked by Spanish and Eurozone CPI and GDP figures. According to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation of the Spanish CPI in July 2016 is -0.6%. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that, if confirmed, would imply an increase of two tenths in its annual rate, given that in June this change was -0.8%. This increase is mainly explained by the increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages compared to the decrease of prices in 2015.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) generated by the Spanish economy registered a 0.7% variation in the second quarter of 2016, as compared to the previous quarter, according to the quarterly GDP flash estimate. This rate was one tenth lower than that registered in the previous quarter. The annual variation of the GDP in the second quarter of 2016 was 3.2%, against 3.4% in the first quarter.
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.2% in July 2016, up from 0.1% in June 2016, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (1.4%, compared with 0.9% June), followed by services (1.2%, compared with 1.1% in June), non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with June) and energy (-6.6%, compared with -6.4% in June).
Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the second quarter of 2016, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2016, GDP grew by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2016, after +1.7% and +1.8% respectively in the previous quarter.
This week markets will be looking at:
Spain Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:15)
Spanish Unemployment Change (Tuesday 9:00)