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Events that marked the week:

From the UK, on Wednesday, GDP data was released. Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016. Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 2 2016. Services increased by 0.5% and production increased by 2.1%. In contrast, construction decreased by 0.4% and agriculture decreased by 1.0%. GDP was 2.2% higher in Quarter 2 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago. In Quarter 2 2016, GDP was estimated to have been 7.7% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 2009, the economy shrank by 6.3%.

Thursday brought Nationwide HPI data was released. UK house prices increased by 0.5% in July and, as a result, the annual rate of house price growth was little changed at 5.2%, compared with 5.1% in June. This is the first month’s data following the EU referendum. However, it is important to note that, in constructing the index, we use data at the mortgage offer stage – this means any impact from the vote may not be fully evident in July’s figures, as there is a short lag between a buyer making the decision to purchase a property and applying for a mortgage.

 

Friday was marked by Net Lending to Individuals data. Total lending to individuals increased by £5.2 billion in June, compared to the average of £5.0 billion over the previous six months. The three-month annualised and twelve-month growth rates were 3.1% and 4.1% respectively. The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 64,766 in June, compared to the average of 69,998 over the previous six months. The number of approvals for remortgaging was 43,102, compared to the average of 41,592 over the previous six months. The number of approvals for other purposes was 12,347, broadly in line with the average over the previous six months.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Manufacturing PMI (Monday 10:30)

Construction PMI (Tuesday 10:30)

Services PMI (Wednesday 10:30)

BOE Inflation Report/Official Bank Rate/Monetary Policy Summary (Thursday 13:00)

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