Separate report on ANZ Job Advertisements showed 2.3% incline. The improved performance in April was driven largely by internet job ads which rose 2.4%. However, newspaper ads continued their trend decline, dropping 2.5% in the month, to conclude the year down 17%. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the improved position of the labour market was a risk to the lender's forecast of a further rate cut, most likely in May.
From China Manufacturing PMI figures were released. China's Manufacturing PMI came at 48.9 in April, down from 49.6 in March. Analysts were anticipating increase from prelim reading of 49.2. This signalled a deterioration in the health of the sector for the second successive month. Moreover, the pace of deterioration was the strongest seen in a year. China’s manufacturing sector had a weak start to Q2, with total new business declining at the quickest rate in a year while production stagnated.
On Australian data front, on Tuesday, Trade Balance data was released. In seasonally adjusted terms, Australian balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,322m in March 2015, a decrease of $287m (18%) on the deficit in February 2015. Analysts were forecasting narrowing of deficit to 0.98 billion dollars. This miss to meet the expectations was largely due to sagging prices for iron ore and coal exports.
However, the focus was on RBA interest rate decision and the following statement. RBA lowered the key rate to 2% from 2.25%, as it was predicted by traders and economists. Governor Glenn Stevens said in a following statement that “the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.”Policy makers reiterated a warning that investment in industries outside mining, which were supposed to pick up slack in the economy, could fall.
Stevens, in his statement, cited a better jobs market while noting a subdued contribution from the government. As for exchange rates it was once again noted that “the Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising U.S. dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies,” Stevens said. “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.”
Wednesday was marked by Australian Retail Sales data. Australian Retail Sales seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in March 2015. Analysts were anticipating 0.4% incline. This follows a rise of 0.7% in February 2015 and a rise of 0.5% in January 2015 and is tenth consecutive month of increase. In volume terms, the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.7% in the March quarter 2015.
Thursday brought Australian job figures. Australian employment decreased 2,900 to 11,724,600, missing expectations on an increase by 3,500. Full-time employment decreased 21,900 to 8,115,900 and part-time employment increased 19,000 to 3,608,600. Unemployment increased 7,000 to 769,500. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 2,700 to 541,500 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 9,800 to 228,000. Unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, in line with market forecasts.
Aussie was pushed below 0.79 handle on Friday morning as the central bank cut its outlook for inflation and growth, suggesting there may be further room to ease the cash rate from a record low 2%, at least according to the Monetary Policy Statement. Furthermore, China's Trade Balance figures were published. China's Trade Balance figures showed that overseas shipments fell 6.2% from a year earlier in yuan value, missing predictions on 0.9% increase. Imports slid 16.1% -- the fourth straight double-digit decline -- leaving a trade surplus of 210.21 billion yuan ($33.9 billion). This was in line with market forecasts.
This week markets will be looking at:
NAB Business Confidence (Monday 3:30)
Home Loans (Tuesday 3:30)
China's Industrial Production (Wednesday 7:30)
