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Events that marked the week:

European part of the Wednesday's session brought M3 Money Supply and German Prelim CPI data. The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015, from 4.0% in February 2015. Analysts were anticipating increase to 4.3%. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. 

Inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015, in line with market forecats.

 

It was quite eventful morning part of the Thursday's session with German Retail Sales, Spanish CPI and GDP, German Unemployment Change and Eurozone CPI and Unemployment Rate figures data being released from Eurozone. Retail turnover in March 2015 in Germany was in real terms 2.3 % and in nominal terms 1.8% smaller than in February 2015. Analysts were expecting 0.5% increase. On the other hand German Unemployment Change figures showed decrease by 8,000 in number of unemployed, though this was also below forecasts on decline by 12,000.

 

Gross Domestic Product generated by the Spanish economy registered a variation of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to fourth quarter of 2014, according to the quarterly GDP advance estimate. Markets were anticipating smaller increase by 0.8%.This rate is two tenths higher than that recorded in the previous quarter (0.7%).

 

Separate report on Spanish CPI showed that the estimated CPI in April 2015 annual inflation is -0.6%, according to the flash estimate issued by the INE. This indicator provides a preview of IPC that, if confirmed, would imply an increase of one tenth in the annual rate, since in March this change was -0.7%. Analysts were predicting no change. This increase is mainly explained by the rise in electricity prices.

 

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.0% in April 2015, up from -0.1% in March. This was in line with market forecasts. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services (0.9%, compared with 1.0% in March) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.9%, compared with 0.6% in March) are expected to have the highest annual rates in April, followed by non-energy industrial goods (0.1%, compared with 0.0% in March) and energy (-5.8%, compared with -6.0% in March).

 

Separate report on Unemployment Rate showed that the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.3% in March 2015, stable compared with February 2015, but below expected decrease to 11.2% and down from 11.7% in March 2014. The EU28 unemployment rate was 9.8% in March 2015, stable compared with February 2015 and down from 10.4% in March 2014.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:15)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:45)

Spanish Unemployment Change (Tuesday 9:00)

Spanish Services PMI (Wednesday 9:15)

Italian Services PMI (Wednesday 9:45)

Retail Sales (Wednesday 11:00)

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