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Events that marked the week:

Aussie was pushed sharply down, on Monday morning, after China's Trade Balance figures. Exports tumbled 14.6% from the year-ago period, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, which cited weak global demand and the impact of the lunar new year as factors behind the decline. Imports meanwhile slid 12.3%, a tad worse than the expected 11.7% fall and after diving 20.5 percent in the month before. The trade surplus for the month totaled $3.08 billion as a result, short of the $43.8 billion forecast.

From Australia, on Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence data was released. There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Index rose to 3 from last month's 0. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry. Elsewhere outcomes were mixed, suggesting some industry specific factors are also at play. Transport & utilities posted the second largest gain, while retail and manufacturing were the only industries to deteriorate.

 

Wednesday was marked by Westpac's consumer sentiment index data. Westpac's index of consumer sentiment slipped a seasonally adjusted 3.2% in April, from March when it dipped 1.2%. The index reading of 96.2 was 3.5 percent lower than in April last year. The retreat unwound more of February's sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has since held rates steady, but has left the door open for further easing if needed.

 

However, focus was on China's GDP and Industrial Production figures. China’s economy expanded at the weakest pace since 2009 last quarter, with output, investment and retail data pointing to a deepening slowdown. GDP rose by 7% in the three months through March from a year earlier,in line with market forecasts. While China’s leaders have signaled tolerance for a slower expansion as they seek to rein in debt risks, corruption and pollution, today’s reports speak to the case for policy makers to deploy greater stimulus.

 

Premier Li Keqiang’s government has already relaxed home-purchasing rules, cut interest rates twice and reduced the reserves banks must set aside in recent months. Industrial production rose 5.6% in March from a year earlier, the weakest since November 2008, and well below expectations on 6.9% growth. The premier last month said policy makers will step in to support the economy if jobs and wages are hurt by the slowdown. Statistics bureau commentary on the labor market changed the description of the labor market to “basically stable,” from “stable overall” in the prior quarter.

 

Focus of the Thursday's session was on Australian job figures. Australian employment increased by 37,700 to 11,720,300. Analysts were anticipating smaller increase by 14,900. Full-time employment increased 31,500 to8,131,400 and part-time employment increased 6,100 to 3,588,900. Unemployment decreased 1,500 to 764,500. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 700 to 546,800 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 2,200 to 217,700.

 

Unemployment rate decreased less than 0.1 pts to 6.1% from a revised February 2015 estimate of 6.2%. Analysts were forecasting no change. Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.8%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 4.8 million hours (0.3%) to 1,630.4 million hours.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Tuesday 3:30)

CPI (Wednesday 3:30)

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence (Thursday 3:30)

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 3:45)

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