EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 13 April

Friday, Apr 10 2015

Events that marked the week:

From Eurozone, on Monday, Spanish Unemployment Change data was released. Number of unemployed in Spain has dropped in March by 60,214 people and places the total at 4,451,939 people. Analysts were predicting smaller decline by 18,300. This is the largest decline in unemployment in this month since 2002. In the last six years, registered unemployment in March had increased on average by over 35,000 people.

On Tuesday, from Eurozone, Spanish and Italian Services PMI figures were released. Spanish Services PMI rose to 57.3 in March from 56.2 in the previous month to signal a sharp increase in service sector output, and one that was the strongest since last August. Analysts were predicting smaller increase to 56.5. Activity has now increased in each of the past 17 months. Report showed strongest rise in new business since July 2000. Greater workloads supported a further increase in employment as outstanding business built up. Rises in staff costs and energy prices brought a two-month sequence of falling input costs to an end, and firms reduced their charges only marginally.

Italian Services PMI climbed to 51.6 in March, from the no-change level of 50.0 in February, and above predicted incline to 51.1, signalling growth for the second time in three months. Buoyed by increased workloads, companies raised employment for the second month running and at a faster rate. Elsewhere, data showed cost pressures increasing to a six-month high, while output charges fell at a slower rate.

Wednesday's session brought German Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales figures. Price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing in Germany in February 2015 decreased a seasonally and working day adjusted 0.9% on January 2015, missing predictions on 1.5% increase, and following a corrected –2.6% in January 2015 on December 2014. Domestic orders in February 2015 recorded no changes to the previous month, foreign orders decreased by 1.6%.

In February 2015 compared with January 2015, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 0.2% in the euro area. Analysts were forecasting 0.1% decline. In February 2015 compared with February 20144 the retail sales index increased by 3.0% in the euro area. The 0.2% decrease in the volume of retail trade in the euro area in February 2015, compared with January 2015, is due to falls of 0.8% for “Food, drinks and tobacco” and of 0.4% for automotive fuel, while the non-food sector rose by 0.1%.

This week markets will be looking at:

Minimum Bid Rate/ECB Press Conference (Wednesday 14:30)

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