AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Tuesday, Jan 19 2016

Though there were no data releases from Australia, yesterday, focus was on China's GDP and Industrial Production figures. Chinese GDP is out, and it’s right in line with expectations at 6.8% annualised for the December quarter. Despite meeting forecasts, it was the slowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2009. Full-year growth was 6.9%, roughly in line with the government’s target of 7.0% for the year. It was the slowest annual expansion recorded since 1990. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the preliminary estimate for GDP was 67,670.8 billion yuan, or around $10,300 billion, for the year.

While the GDP figure was bang on expectation, industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment growth – released alongside the GDP report – all missed to the downside in December. From a year earlier industrial production grew by 5.9%, down on the 6.2% pace of November and expectations for a moderation to 6.0%. Retail sales growth also decelerated, coming in at an annual rate of 11.1% against expectations for an increase of 11.3%. It was the first month since July 2015 that the annual rate was slower than the month before. Rounding off the trifecta of monthly misses, urban fixed asset investment slowed to an annual pace of 10.0%. The figure, below the 10.2% pace of November, marks the slowest annual increase since the early 2000s.

With no data releases from Australia tomorrow, focus will remain on developments in China. In the US part of the session CPI, Building Permits and Housing Starts figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts predict no change in CPI. Building Permits are expected to decline to an annual rate of 1.20 million, while Housing Starts should increase to 1.19 million.

Figures to watch:

Building Permits/Housing Starts (Wednesday 14:30)

CPI (Wednesday 14:30)

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