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There were no data releases from Eurozone yesterday, with traders being cautious at the beginning of the week. The ECB January meeting and press conference (Thursday) are the most important events for the EUR this week, and while policy settings are widely expected to remain unchanged, dovish rhetoric should place downward pressure on the currency. In the statement and press conference, the ECB is likely to show concern with the tightening in financial conditions that has occurred since its December meeting, including 5% EUR NEER appreciation.

This dovish message is likely to be reiterated by President Draghi and Executive Board Member Cœuré when they speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Friday. With EA core inflation and market measures of inflation expectations remaining extremely low, we continue to think longer or greater policy accommodation is likely, which should weigh heavily on the EUR.

 

As for tomorrow, from Eurozone, ZEW Economic Sentiment figures will be published. Sentiment for Germany is expected to decline to to 8.2, while Eurozone Sentiment should fall to 27.9 points. There will be no data releases in the US part of the session.

 

Figures to watch:

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment/ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday 11:00)

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