On Tuesday Trade Balance figures were released. The U.S. trade deficit fell from a near two year high in February as slowing domestic demand weighed on imports and stronger global growth boosted exports of American goods. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade deficit declined 9.6 percent to $43.6 billion, also as exports increased to their highest level in more than two years, after rising to a near two-year high of $48.2 billion in January.
Wednesday brought ADP Employment Change and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. Private sector employment increased by 263,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report. “The U.S. labor market finished the first quarter on a strong note,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
The NMI registered 55.2 percent, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 58.9 percent, 4.7 percentage points lower than the February reading of 63.6 percent, reflecting growth for the 92nd consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 58.9 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the reading of 61.2 percent in February. The Employment Index decreased 3.6 percentage points in March to 51.6 percent from the February reading of 55.2 percent.
However, the focus of the session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Most Federal Reserve policymakers think the central bank should take steps to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year as long as the economic data holds up, minutes from their last meeting showed. The minutes released on Wednesday of the March 14-15 policy discussion, at which the Fed voted 9-1 to raise interest rates, also showed that the rate-setting committee had a broad discussion about whether to phase out or halt reinvestments all at once.
"Provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year," the Fed said in the minutes. Fed policymakers have previously indicated that any plan to shrink its portfolio would let the bonds naturally roll off, by not reinvesting them when they mature, once its interest rate hikes were "well under way."
Thursday was marked by Unemployment Claims figures. In the week ending April 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 258,000 to 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average.
Focus of the Friday's session was on NFP data. The weaker-than-expected headline from the March jobs report will not deter the Federal Reserve from raising short-term interest rates twice more this year, economists said. The U.S. created just 98,000 new jobs in March. But economists say the data is not a signal that the U.S. economy is falling out of bed. For one thing it would be unusual for the labor market to get substantially worse without first seeing hints in the weekly jobless claims data, which have been very strong lately. Another good sign is the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.7%, the lowest rate since May 2007. A 4.5% unemployment rate is at the bottom of most estimates of where most economists think the jobless rate could sit without generating inflation.
This week markets will be looking at:
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Thursday 16:00)
CPI (Friday 14:30)
Retail Sales (Friday 14:30)