The ECB January meeting and press conference (Thursday) are the most important events for the EUR this week, and while policy settings are widely expected to remain unchanged, dovish rhetoric should place downward pressure on the currency. In the statement and press conference, the ECB is likely to show concern with the tightening in financial conditions that has occurred since its December meeting, including 5% EUR NEER appreciation.
This dovish message is likely to be reiterated by President Draghi and Executive Board Member Cœuré when they speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Friday. With EA core
inflation and market measures of inflation expectations remaining extremely low, we continue to think longer or greater policy accommodation is likely, which should weigh heavily on the EUR.
Euro is currently being traded around 1.09 area. Pair is likely to find support around 1.0850 handle and resistance above 1.0970 level. There will be no major data releases in the rest of the session.