Thursday was marked by Unemployment Claims figures. In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 284,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. Analysts were forecasting decrease to 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750.
Friday's session was marked by Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment figures were released. The U.S. Census Bureau announced that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $448.1 billion, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, and 2.2% above December 2014. This was in line with market expectations. Total sales for the 12 months of 2015 were up 2.1% from 2014. Retail trade sales were down 0.2% from November 2015, but up 1.6% from last year. Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores were up 7.6% from December 2014 and nonstore retailers were up 7.1% from last year.
The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.2% in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices increased 0.3% in November and fell 0.4 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index fell 1.0% in 2015, after rising 0.9% in 2014. In December, the decrease in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.7% decline in prices for final demand goods. In contrast, the index for final demand services moved up 0.1%.
The January 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers at the fastest pace since the Great Recession. The headline general business conditions index fell thirteen points to -19.4. Analysts were forecasting increase to -4.1 points. The new orders and shipments indexes plummeted, indicating a steep decline in both orders and shipments.
Industrial production declined 0.4% in December, primarily as a result of cutbacks for utilities and mining. Decline by 0.2% was forecasted. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported, but upward revisions to earlier months left the level of the index in November only slightly below its initial estimate. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 3.4%. Manufacturing output edged down in December.
Consumer confidence rose in January to the highest level in seven months as low inflation helped support households, whose outlook for wage gains remained subdued. The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index climbed to 93.3, the highest since June, from 92.6 in December. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey called for 92.9. The gauge averaged 92.9 last year, the best annual performance since 2004. Last month’s advance was paced by those making more than $75,000 a year.
Next week markets will be looking at:
Building Permits/Housing Starts (Wednesday 14:30)
CPI (Wednesday 14:30)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)
Existing Home Sales (Friday 16:00)
