Tuesday was marked by CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI data. CB Consumer Confidence Index stands at 101.3, up from 98.8 in February, revised from 96.4. Analysts were forecasting figure of around 96.6. The Expectations Index increased from 90.0 last month to 96.0 in March. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased from 112.1 in February to 109.1. This month’s increase was driven by an improved short-term outlook for both employment and income prospects; consumers were less upbeat about business conditions. While analysts were predicting increase to 52.5, Chicago PMI rose only to 46.3, remaining near six-year lows. On the more positive side New Orders rose compared to last month as well as Employment.
Wednesday brought ADP job figures and US Manufacturing PMI figures were released. Private sector employment increased by 189,000 jobs from February to March,missing expectations on an increase by 227,000. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth took a step back in March. The fallout from the collapse in oil prices and surge in value of the dollar is hitting the job market. Despite the slowdown, underlying job growth remains strong enough to reduce labor market slack.”
The March U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from February’s reading of 52.9 percent. Analysts were forecasting smaller decrease to 52.5. Comments from the panel refer to continuing challenges from the West Coast port issue, lower oil prices having both positive and negative impacts depending upon the industry, residual effects of the harsh winter, higher costs of healthcare premiums, and challenges associated with the stronger dollar on international business.
On Thursday Unemployment Claims figures were released. In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level, beating market forecasts on smaller decrease to 286,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,500, a decrease of 14,750 from the previous week's revised average.
In the Friday's US session NFP figures were released. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in March (+126,000). Analysts were predicting increase by 246,000. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 269,000 per month. In March, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while employment in mining declined. The unemployment rate held at 5.5%, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 8.6 million. This was in line with market forecasts.
Next week markets will be looking at:
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday 16:00)
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 20:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
