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There were no data releases from the UK yesterday. Sterling has risen to its highest level against the dollar since the start of the EU referendum campaign, as polls show support for the Remain camp growing. After Barack Obama's intervention in the Brexit debate on Friday, betting odds for the UK to stay in the EU jumped from 65 per cent to 73 per cent, a move reflected in polls conducted this week that indicated "stronger momentum" for Remain ahead of the 23 June referendum. While reaction to this week's polls has also seen sterling rebound strongly against the euro, specialist bank Investec warned that investors "needed to be careful in poll interpretation", reports the Irish Independent.

In the US session GDP and Unemployment Claims figures were released. GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Analysts were expecting 0.7% increase. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level, in line with market forecasts. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 252,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 260,500 to 260,750.

 

Tomorrow's session will bring Net Lending to Individuals data. Increase to 5 billion pound is forecasted. In the US session Chicago PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment figures will be released. Analysts are predicting decrease to 53.1 in GDP, while revised consumer sentiment should increase to 90.3 compared to a prelim reading.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Net Lending to Individuals (Friday 10:30)

Chicago PMI (Friday 15:45)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

Last modified on Thursday, 28 April 2016

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