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Yesterday's session was marked by German Retail Sales and Employment Change figures, as well as Spanish and Eurozone CPI data. Retail turnover in February 2016 in Germany increased in real terms and in nominal terms (also) 5.4% compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 25 in February 2016 and 24 in February 2015. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations the February turnover was in real terms and in nominal terms 0.4% smaller than that in January 2016. Analysts were predicting increase by 0.3%.

The number of unemployed people in Germany was unchanged in March, while the unemployment rate held steady at an all-time low, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the unemployment rate was unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in March, in line with analyst expectations. The number of unemployed people was flat in March from a month earlier, disappointing forecasts for a drop of 7,000. Jobless claims fell by 9,000 in February, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 10,000.

 

Separate report on Spanish CPI, Consumer price inflation in Spain rose less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica said that Spanish CPI rose to 0.6%, from -0.4% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected Spanish CPI to rise 0.7% last month.

 

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.1% in March 2016, up from -0.2% in February, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This was in line with market expectations. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (1.3%, compared with 0.9% in February), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.7%, compared with 0.6% in February), non-energy industrial goods (0.5% compared with 0.7% in February) and energy (-8.7%, compared with -8.1% in February).

 

In the US session Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures were released. In the week ending March 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. Smaller increase to 266,000 was predicted. The 4-week moving average was 263,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 259,750. This marks 56 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.

 

The Chicago Business Barometer increased 6.0 points to 53.6 in March, led by sharp bouncebacks in Production and Employment. Four of the five Barometer components increased between February and March, with only Supplier Deliveries declining on the month. The increase in the Barometer was led by a very sharp rise in Production, which followed an even steeper decline in the previous month. The biggest surprise came from the Employment component which rose above the 50 mark in March and to the highest level since April 2015. This followed a period of relative weakness compared with other activity indicators.

 

From Eurozone, on Friday, Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMI data is scheduled for a release. Spanish Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 53.8, while Italian PMI should rise to 52.6. On the other hand, Spanish CPI should fall by 0.6% and Eurozone CPI should decline by 0.1%. In the US session NFP, Manufacturing PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment figures will be published. Analysts forecast increase to 206,00 in non-farm employment, while unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.9%. Manufacturing PMI should rise to 50.8, as well as Consumer Sentiment to 90.6.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Friday 09:15)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Friday 09:45)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Average Hourly Earnings/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Friday 16:00)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

Last modified on Thursday, 31 March 2016

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