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Yesterday's session brought UK Current Account and Net Lending to Individuals data. The United Kingdom’s (UK) current account deficit was £32.7 billion in Quarter 4 2015, up from a revised deficit of £20.1 billion in Quarter 3 2015. Analysts were anticipating deficit of £21.1 billion. The deficit in Quarter 4 2015 equated to 7.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, the largest proportion since quarterly records began in 1955, up from 4.3% in Quarter 3 2015. The widening in the current account deficit was due to a widening in the deficits on primary income, total trade and secondary income.

Separate report on Money and Credit showed that total lending to individuals increased by £4.9 billion in February, in line with the average over the previous six months. The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 73,871 in February, compared to the average of 70,991 over the previous six months. The number of approvals for remortgaging was 40,749, broadly in line with the average over the previous six months. The number of approvals for other purposes was 12,514, compared to the average of 12,103 over the previous six months.

 

In the US session Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures were released. In the week ending March 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. Smaller increase to 266,000 was predicted. The 4-week moving average was 263,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 259,750. This marks 56 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.

 

The Chicago Business Barometer increased 6.0 points to 53.6 in March, led by sharp bouncebacks in Production and Employment. Four of the five Barometer components increased between February and March, with only Supplier Deliveries declining on the month. The increase in the Barometer was led by a very sharp rise in Production, which followed an even steeper decline in the previous month. The biggest surprise came from the Employment component which rose above the 50 mark in March and to the highest level since April 2015. This followed a period of relative weakness compared with other activity indicators.

 

Tomorrow's session will bring UK Manufacturing PMI data. Increase to 51.4 is expected. In the US session NFP, Manufacturing PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment figures will be published. Analysts forecast increase to 206,00 in non-farm employment, while unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.9%. Manufacturing PMI should rise to 50.8, as well as Consumer Sentiment to 90.6.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Manufacturing PMI (Friday 10:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Average Hourly Earnings/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Friday 16:00)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

Last modified on Thursday, 31 March 2016

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