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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 04 July – 08 July

Events that marked the week:

Market participants have had some time to digest the repercussions of the UK exit from the European Union and have been selling the Pound across the board in early week trading. There remains uncertainty surrounding the unprecedented departure from the EU. Prime Minister Cameron conveyed on Tuesday that a second referendum was not in the cards. Though this point had been made ahead of the vote, GBP bears may have hesitated as any type of indication that the vote was not going to be enforced, would cause a sharp reversal in the pair.

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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 04 July – 08 July

Events that marked the week:

Investors ignored a potentially bearish report from Australia that showed the sale of new homes declined for a second consecutive month in May, adding further evidence that the recent peak cycle has passed. New home sales fell by 4.4% in May after seasonal adjustments, following a 4.7% in April, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said in a report on Wednesday. Despite recent volatility in new home sales, the underlying trend reflects a healthy leveling off following successive record highs in 2014 and 2015. Home loans increased in April, supporting expectations for continued growth despite hitting a rough path earlier in the year.

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USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

On Tuesday Final GDP and CB Consumer Sentiment figures were released. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – 27 June – 01 July

Events that marked the week:

From Eurozone, on Tuesday, ZEW Economic Sentiment figures were released. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased in June 2016. The index has improved by 12.8 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 19.2 points (long-term average: 24.4 points). "The improvement of economic sentiment indicates that the financial market experts have confidence in the resilience of the German economy. However, general economic conditions remain challenging. Apart from the weak global economic dynamics, it is mainly the EU referendum in Great Britain which causes uncertainty," says Professor Achim Wambach, President of ZEW.

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