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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 11 July – 15 July

Events that marked the week:

Monday brought UK Construction PMI figures. Meanwhile, softer demand conditions acted as a brake on staff recruitment in June and contributed to a drop in purchasing activity for the first time in just over three years. At 46.0 in June, down from 51.2 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since April 2013. The latest reading pointed to the weakest overall performance for exactly seven years, but the rate of contraction was much slower than seen during the 2008/09 downturn.

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USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

On Wednesday Trade Balance, Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Meeting Minutes data was released. US goods and services deficit was $41.1 billion in May, up $3.8 billion from $37.4 billion in April, revised. Analysts were anticipating deficit of $40 billion. May exports were $182.4 billion, $0.3 billion less than April exports. May imports were $223.5 billion, $3.4 billion more than April imports.The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.7 billion to $62.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $21.1 billion.

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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 11 July – 15 July

Events that marked the week:

Monday was marked by Australian Building Approvals and ANZ Job Advertisements figures. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.9% in May and has risen for six months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 5.2% in May after rising for two months. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved fell 10.3% in May following a rise of 18.2% in the previous month. The value of residential building fell 6.4% after rising for three months. The value of non-residential building fell 18.5% following a rise of 47.7% in the previous month.

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – 04 July – 08 July

Events that marked the week:

From Eurozone, on Monday, M3 Money Supply figures were released. The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.9% in May 2016, from 4.6% in April, averaging 4.8% in the three months up to May. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate including currency in circulation and overnight deposits (M1) decreased to 9.1% in May, from 9.7% in April.

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