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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 19 February - 23 February

Events that marked the week:

From Australia, on Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence figures were released. The business conditions index jumped 6pts to a strong +19 index points, which is well above the long-run average of +5 index points. According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist “The large rise in the NAB Monthly Business Survey business conditions index provides further confirmation of robust business activity in Australia. While the index can bounce around from month-to-month due to changes in seasonal patterns, conditions remain elevated on a trend basis.”

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USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

Wednesday brought CPI and Retail Sales figures. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, apparel, medical care, and food all contributing. The energy index rose 3.0 percent in January, with the increase in the gasoline index more than offsetting declines in other energy component indexes.

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USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

On Monday ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data was published. The NMI® registered 59.9 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 8.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted reading of 54.5 percent in December.

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 12 February - 16 February

Events that marked the week:

From Eurozone, on Monday, Spanish Services PMI figures were released. Growth in the Spanish service sector picked up pace at the start of 2018, with sharper increases in activity and new business recorded. The rate of job creation remained elevated, while business confidence reached a seven-month high. On the price front, inflation of both input costs and output charges hit multi-year highs. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 56.9 in January from 54.6 in December. The steep rise in activity was the fastest since July 2017. Activity has increased continuously since November 2013.

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