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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 22 August – 26 August

Events that marked the week:

Tuesday was marked by RBA Meeting Minutes. Policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia were adamant in their decision to lower interest rates this month, maintaining that there was no material change in their forecast for inflation. “The latest CPI data for Australia had confirmed that inflation pressures were subdued, as had been expected when the previous forecasts were discussed in May. As such, the outlook for underlying inflation was little changed.

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USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

On Monday Empire State Manufacturing Index figures were released. Business activity in New York State declined slightly this month, according to firms responding to the August 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to -4.2. The neworders index remained near zero, a sign that orders were little changed, while the shipments index climbed eight points to 9.0, indicating that shipments rose. Labor market indicators pointed to little change in employment levels and hours worked.

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – 15 August – 19 August

Events that marked the week:

Monday's session brought only minor importance German Industrial Production figures. In June 2016, production in industry was up by 0.8% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In May 2016, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 0.9% (primary –1.3%) from April 2016. In June 2016, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 1.5%. Within industry, the production of capital goods increased by 3.5% and the production of consumer goods by 1.2%. The production of intermediate goods decreased by 0.7%. Energy production was down by 2.7% in June 2016 and the production in construction decreased by 0.5%.

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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 15 August – 19 August

Events that marked the week:

Tuesday's session was marked by UK Industrial Production figures. Total production output is estimated to have increased by 2.1% between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 and Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2016. This increase was unchanged from the forecast contained within the Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: Apr to June 2016. Hence there is no impact on the previously published GDP estimate for Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2016. The largest contribution to the quarterly increase in total production came from manufacturing, which increased by 1.8%. The largest contribution to the increase in manufacturing came from the manufacture of transport equipment, which increased by 5.6%.

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