- Thursday, 21 December 2017
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 22 December
Yesterday's session brought Public Sector Net Borrowing data from the UK: Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £3.1 billion to £48.1 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to November 2017), compared with the same period in 2016; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since 2007. Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £0.2 billion to £8.7 billion in November 2017, compared with November 2016; this is the lowest November net borrowing since 2007.
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- Thursday, 21 December 2017
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 22 December
There were no data releases from Australia yesterday. Australia's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) released on 18 December highlights a modest improvement in the fiscal outlook, largely reflecting a boost in tax collections, including from higher corporate profits in the mining sector. Fitch Ratings expects the gross public debt ratio to peak in 2018 and the fiscal balance to be brought into a surplus by 2021, which is consistent with our 'AAA'/Stable sovereign rating on Australia. Nevertheless, the rise in public debt over the last decade has eroded the sovereign's buffer against economic shocks.
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- Wednesday, 20 December 2017
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 21 December
Yesterday's session brought Eurozone Current Account figures. The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €30.8 billion in October 2017. This reflected surpluses for goods (€26.2 billion), primary income (€9.8 billion) and services (€7.3 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12.5 billion). The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in October 2017 recorded a surplus of €349.6 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €363.4 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to October 2016.
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- Wednesday, 20 December 2017
- Daily Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 21 December
Yesterday, from the UK, CBI Realized Sales survey results were released. Retail sales rose in the year to December, building further on November’s solid performance, according to the latest monthly CBI Distributive Trades Survey. 37% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in December on a year ago, whilst 17% said they were down, giving a balance of +20%. Growth was slower than expected (+30%), and slightly slower than in November (+26%). Alpesh Paleja, CBI Principal Economist, said: “Retailers have seen decent growth heading into the vital Christmas trading period, although it was weaker than expected. It’s clear that people are stocking up on food for their Christmas lunch, with grocers’ sales driving most of the sales growth seen in December.
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