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NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

Thursday, Feb 08 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

The headline conditions and confidence numbers were broadly consistent with what we have seen in the Monthly iteration of the Survey, although the bounce in the month of December is yet to be reflected in the quarterly data. The business conditions index (an average of trading/sales, profitability and employment) rose 1 point, to +15 in the December quarter – which is well above the long-run average – driven by improvements in employment, while trading conditions eased slightly and profitability was steady. Employment conditions have been holding up at levels that suggest we are likely to see further improvement in unemployment over coming quarters. Meanwhile, the business confidence index eased slightly to +6 points in the quarter, which is only a little above the average.

According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster, “the monthly Survey suggested that confidence improved a lot towards the end of the quarter, so we are not too concerned about the softer outcome. However, when we ask firms about the factors having the biggest impact on confidence, those indicating a deterioration in confidence appear to be most concerned about wage pressures, despite the fact that we have only seen fairly modest wage growth in the economy to date. It is unclear whether this means we are likely to see a pick-up in wages from here, or conversely, even more restraint as firms attempt to preserve margins.”

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