While the Index appears to have recovered from the slow patch in June /August, it is still well below the levels it enjoyed over the six months to May when the average growth rate reading was +1.12%.In June, the growth rate printed –0.41% compared to November’s reading of +0.69%. The main component contributions to the lift over this period have been: commodity prices in AUD terms (+0.38ppts ); dwelling approvals (+0.20ppts); the Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment expectations Index (+0.19ppts); the Westpac MI Unemployment Expectations Index (+0.18ppts); a steeper yield curve (+0.18ppts); and the S&P/ASX200 Index (+0.09ppts).
Australian MI Leading Index up by 0.1%
The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, lifted from +0.51% in October to +0.69% in November. Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented, “This is a strong above trend reading and, following the solid result in October, points to some of the headwinds to growth evident earlier in the year having eased. That said, there are still key negatives around housing, household incomes and the consumer which are likely to contain any upswing in 2018.”
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