Wednesdy brought CPI data. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent. The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase. The gasoline index increased 7.3 percent, and the other energy component indexes also rose. The food index was unchanged in November, with the index for food at home declining slightly.
However, the focus of the session was on Fed's interest rate decision and the following press conference. The Federal Reserve had been expected to raise its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to a target range of 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee raised its GDP estimate from 2.1 percent in September to 2.5 percent. The inflation forecast for 2018 also got a modest boost, from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent. The statement noted that the jobs market "will remain strong," an upgrade from the assessment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting that conditions "will strengthen somewhat further."
On top of the more buoyant outlook for overall growth, Fed officials cut their estimates for the unemployment rate, to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, two-tenths below the previous numbers. The 2020 rate is expected to be 4 percent, down from 4.2 percent, while the longer-run outlook remained at 4.6 percent. The current unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. The statement noted that the jobs market "will remain strong," an upgrade from the assessment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting that conditions "will strengthen somewhat further." Later, the committee said the current stance of monetary policy is "supporting strong labor market conditions," a contrast to the language from the previous meeting that indicated "some further strengthening."
Thursday's session was marked by Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims data. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start, pointing to sustained strength in the economy that could pave the way for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes next year. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.8 percent last month, with households buying a range of goods even as they cut back on purchases of motor vehicles. Data for October was revised to show sales gaining 0.5 percent instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent increase.
Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed that in the week ending December 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 234,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 241,500.
Friday's session brought Industrial Production figures. U.S. industrial production rose less than expected in November as a drop in utilities output offset a post-hurricane rebound in the oil and gas industries and the third consecutive monthly advance for manufacturing, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Overall industrial output rose 0.2 percent following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent gain in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output rising 0.3 percent last month.
This week markets will be looking at:
Building Permits/Housing Starts (Tuesday 14:30)
Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)
Final GDP (Thursday 14:30)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)
Durable Goods Orders (Friday 14:30)
New Home Sales (Friday 16:00)