Tuesday brought CB Consumer Confidence figures. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in October, increased further in November. The Index now stands at 129.5 (1985=100), up from 126.2 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 152.0 to 153.9, while the Expectations Index rose from 109.0 last month to 113.3. "Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high (Nov. 2000, 132.6)," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
On Wednesday GDP data was published. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate.
However, the focus of the session was on Janet Yellen's testimony. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen called on Congress to adopt policies that will get U.S. economic growth out of its "disappointingly slow" post-recession pattern. "To generate a sustained boost in economic growth without causing inflation that is too high, we will need to address these underlying causes," Yellen said, according to prepared remarks she will deliver to a joint congressional panel. " As for monetary policy, the Yellen Fed has begun normalizing the highly accommodative measures it took to boost the economy. The Fed has approved four interest rate hikes since December 2015 and begun to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Yellen said "gradual increases" in the Fed's benchmark rate will be appropriate as the economy continues to recover.
Thursday was marked by Unemployment Claims data. In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 239,000 to 240,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 239,750 to 240,000. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands.
On Friday ISM Manufacturing PMI data was published. The November PMI registered 58.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the October reading of 58.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 63.4 percent. The Production Index registered 63.9 percent, a 2.9 percentage point increase compared to the October reading of 61 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.7 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the October reading of 59.8 percent.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 16:00)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)