Wednesday brought ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures. Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market rebounded strongly from the hit it took from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Resurgence in construction jobs shows the rebuilding is already in full swing. Looking through the hurricane-created volatility, job growth is robust.”
The October PMI registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 60.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.4 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the September reading of 64.6 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 62.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the September reading of 60.3 percent.
However, focus of the session was on FOMC interest rate decision and the following statement. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and pointed to solid U.S. economic growth and a strengthening labor market while playing down the impact of recent hurricanes, a sign it is on track to lift borrowing costs again in December. "The labor market has continued to strengthen and ... economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions," the Fed's rate-setting committee said in a statement after its unanimous policy decision. In keeping with that encouraging tone, the central bank's policymakers acknowledged that inflation remained soft but did not downgrade their assessment of pricing expectations.
On Thursday, Unemployment Claims data was published. In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 232,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232,250. Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The ability to take claims has improved in Puerto Rico and they are now processing backlogged claims.
Friday's session was marked by NFP and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. U.S. job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, but a sharp retreat in annual wage gains and surge in the number of people dropping out of the work force cast a cloud over the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 261,000 jobs last month as 106,000 leisure and hospitality workers returned to work, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. That was the largest gain since July 2016 but below economists’ expectations for an increase of 310,000 jobs. Although the unemployment rate fell to near a 17-year low of 4.1 percent, it was because the labor force dropped by 765,000 after a surprise jump of 575,000 in September.
The NMI® registered 60.1 percent, which is 0.3 percentage point higher than the September reading of 59.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. This is the highest NMI reading since the index’s debut in 2008. The highest reading among pre-2008 composite index calculations is 61.3 percent in August 2005. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 62.2 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the September reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 99th consecutive month, at a slightly faster rate in October.
This week markets will be looking at:
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)