USD - Major events in the week ahead

Friday, Oct 13 2017

Events that marked the week:

Focus of the Wednesday's session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve policymakers had a prolonged debate about the prospects of a pickup in inflation and slowing the path of future interest rate rises if it did not, according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting on Sept. 19-20 released on Wednesday. The readout of the meeting, at which the Fed announced it would begin this month to reduce its large bond portfolio mostly amassed following the financial crisis and unanimously voted to hold rates steady, also showed that officials remained mostly sanguine about the economic impact of recent hurricanes.

"Many participants expressed concern that the low inflation readings this year might reflect... the influence of developments that could prove more persistent, and it was noted that some patience in removing policy accommodation while assessing trends in inflation was warranted," the Fed said in the minutes. As such several said that they would focus on incoming inflation data over the next few months when deciding on future interest rate moves. Nevertheless, many policymakers still felt that another rate increase this year "was likely to be warranted," the Fed said.

On Thursday PPI and Unemployment Claims figures were published. The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012.

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 260,000 to 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 257,500, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 268,250 to 267,000. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria impacted this week's claims.

Friday's session was marked by CPI and Retail Sales figures. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent. The gasoline index increased 13.1 percent in September and accounted for about three-fourths of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, and the food index rose slightly.

U.S. retail sales jumped last month by the most in more than two years as motor vehicles lost to hurricanes were quickly replaced and higher prices lifted receipts at gasoline stations, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. Overall sales surged 1.6% (est. 1.7% gain), the most since March 2015, after a revised 0.1% decline in prior month. Purchases at car dealers rose 3.6%, also the largest advance since March 2015, after 2.1% decrease.

This week markets will be looking at:

Industrial Production (Tuesday 15:15)

Building Permits/Housing Starts (Wednesday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)

Existing Home Sales (Thursday 16:00)

More in this category: « U.S Retail Sales surged by 1.6% Rightmove HPI increased by 1.1% »