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Australian Leading index remains below trend

Wednesday, Sep 20 2017
Australian Leading index remains below trend

The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slipped from –0.04% in July to –0.19% in August. Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented, “The growth rate remains negative for a third consecutive month pointing to below trend momentum and a sharp turnaround from strong positive, above trend reads at the start of the year.”

“While the Index only gives us a glimpse of the likely momentum in the first few months of 2018 it currently seems to be more consistent with our view of the likely growth environment next year than the Reserve Bank’s forecast for growth comfortably above trend. Westpac is currently forecasting growth of 2.5% in 2018 compared to the RBA’s 3.25%. Trend growth is generally assessed as 2.75%.''

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