USD - Major events in the week ahead

Friday, Sep 15 2017

Events that marked the week:

On Friday Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment data was published. An unexpected decline in August retail sales and downward revisions to the prior two months mainly reflected weaker results at auto dealerships, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. Overall sales fell 0.2% (est. 0.1% gain) after a 0.3% increase (prev. 0.6% gain); June sales dropped 0.1% (prev. 0.3% rise).

Industrial production declined 0.9 percent in August following six consecutive monthly gains. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 3/4 percentage point. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent; storm-related effects appear to have reduced the rate of change in factory output in August about 3/4 percentage point.

U.S. consumer sentiment dipped in September as Americans expressed concern about the economic and inflationary impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, University of Michigan survey data showed Friday. Preliminary sentiment index fell to 95.3 (est. 95) from 96.8 in August. Current conditions gauge, which measures Americans’ perceptions of their personal finances, increased to 113.9 from 110.9. Expectations measure decreased to 83.4 from 87.7.

Thursday was marked by CPI and Unemployment Claims data. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent. Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter accounted for nearly all of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 2.8 percent in August as the gasoline index increased 6.3 percent. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent in August with the rent index up 0.4 percent. The food index rose slightly in August, with the index for food away from home increasing and the food at home index declining.

Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed that in the week ending September 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 284,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 298,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,250, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 250,250. This is the highest level for this average since August 13, 2016 when it was 263,250. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted this week's initial claims.

This week markets will be looking at:

Building Permits/Housing Starts (Tuesday 14:30)

Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)

Federal Funds Rate/FOMC Economic Projections/FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday 20:00)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)

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