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Business conditions saw an impressive rebound this month, largely unwinding the steady downward trend seen since mid-2016. The business conditions index (an average of trading conditions (sales), profitability and employment) jumped 5 points, to +11 index points, which is well above the long-run average for the series (+5). Meanwhile, business confidence has been quite steady over the past year, and December was no different. The confidence index was unchanged at +6 index points, consistent with the long run average.

According to Mr Alan Oster, NAB’s Chief Economist, “the rebound in business conditions is certainly encouraging, but at this stage we are not getting too carried away with the result. Stronger business conditions in December largely reflected unexpectedly strong improvements in some industries, which might not be sustained, while other indicators were generally mixed as well. As for business confidence, the stability we have seen for some time now has been welcome, but it does not fully reflect the strength in business conditions. That might suggest that business still has a high degree of concern about global uncertainties in particular”.

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