Bank of Australia governor Ian Macfarlane was in the Australian media overnight speaking about the direction global growth is headed and what effect that is having on monetary policy decisions at home. It was his comments around on the Aussie Dollar and why current governor Glenn Stevens and the RBA felt they ‘had to’ cut rates earlier this month that pricked my trading interest.
“Their problem is that financial markets, particularly offshore, assume a mechanical application of what they regard as the standard model.” When the 2-3% target band was introduced, it wasn’t within a global environment of weak
inflation and zero
interest rates. Neither were financial markets running the constant news cycle that we see now where even the smallest of
central bank leaning can have monumental effects on where traders push markets.
“The inflation targeting approach says that if inflation forecasts are below target, we should run an easy monetary policy – we already have that. It doesn’t say that each time we receive an inflation statistic showing it is below target, we have to cut interest rates.” The RBA are one of the more conservative central banks in the world and any decision to continue cutting rates wasn’t ever taken lightly (as the minutes showed).
Aussie is currently being traded around 0.7220 area. Pair is likely to find support around 0.7150 handle and resistance above 0.7250 level. Later today, in the US session,
Existing Home Sales figures will be released.