Tuesday brought Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence figures. Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed less than forecast in March as demand for capital equipment remained weak, a sign that a diminished growth outlook is impeding investment. Bookings for items meant to last at least three years rose 0.8% after a revised 3.1% slump a month earlier, data from the Commerce Department showed Tuesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 1.9% advance. Orders for business equipment were little changed last month, also weaker than projected.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in March, declined moderately in April. The Index now stands at 94.2, down from 96.1 in March. The Present Situation Index increased from 114.9 to 116.4, while the Expectations Index decreased from 83.6 to 79.3 in April. “Consumer confidence continued on its sideways path, posting a slight decline in April, following a modest gain in March,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
Focus of the Wednesday's session was on Fed interest rate decision and the following statement. Federal Reserve policy makers signaled they’re open to raising interest rates in June, nodding to improvement in global financial markets and downplaying recent weakness in the U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee omitted previous language that “global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,” instead saying officials will “closely monitor” such developments, according to a statement released Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington.
The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. “Labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed,” the FOMC said. “Growth in household spending has moderated, although households’ real income has risen at a solid rate and consumer sentiment remains high.” The committee reiterated that it will probably raise rates at a “gradual” pace.
Thursday was marked by GDP and Unemployment Claims data. GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Analysts were expecting 0.7% increase. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level, in line with market forecasts. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 252,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 260,500 to 260,750.
Friday was marked by Chicago PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment figures. Consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in April as Americans’ expectations about economic growth dropped to the lowest point since September 2014. The University of Michigan final index of sentiment declined to 89 from 91 in March. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 90. The preliminary reading for this month was 89.7. Worker pay that’s advanced slowly during the expansion and the ongoing negativity in the presidential election campaign have left Americans guarded. While households viewed their finances as currently favorable, they’re saving more in the event that employment softens along with wage growth.
Separate report on Chicago PMI showed that it decreased 3.2 points to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March led by a fall in New Orders and a sharp drop in Order Backlogs. It marks a slow start to the second quarter, with most measures down from levels seen a year earlier. Three of the five Barometer components decreased between March and April, with only Production and Supplier Deliveries posting increases on the month. April’s decline left the three-month trend running at a softer pace of 50.5, having ended Q1 at the highest level in over a year.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)