USD Daily Forecast - 09 August

The Fed left rates unchanged last week, upgrading its view on the economy from “stable” to “strong.” It also reiterated its plans to raise rates two more times in 2018.

Put simply, this was a notably hawkish Fed meeting. Which is why it’s striking that the USD didn’t do much of anything in response. The greenback was effectively flat that day.

Truth be told, the USD hasn’t done much of anything since the Fed June meeting. Again, this is striking because the Fed is currently engaged in the single most hawkish monetary policy in history with 3-4 intended rate hikes per year and a QT program of $30 billion per month. Read more...

EIA: Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels from previous week

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending July 13, 2018, which was 413,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 1,635,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Building Permits fell by 2.2%

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,273,000. This is 2.2 percent below the revised May rate of 1,301,000 and is 3.0 percent below the June 2017 rate of 1,312,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 850,000; this is 0.8 percent above the revised May figure of 843,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 387,000 in June.

Manufacturing Output in U.S. Rises by Most in Four Months

U.S. factory production rebounded in June by the most in four months as the industry regained its footing after a fire-related disruption at an auto parts supplier, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. Factory output rose 0.8 percent (est. 0.7% gain) after falling a revised 1% (prev. 0.7% drop. Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, increased 0.6% (est. 0.5% rise) after a revised 0.5% decrease. Read more...