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Strong U.S. retail sales brighten economic outlook

The Commerce Department said on Monday that retail sales increased 0.5 percent last month. Data for May was revised higher to show sales rising 1.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent gain. May’s gain in retail sales was the largest since September 2017. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.5 percent in June. Retail sales in June increased 6.6 percent from a year ago. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales were unchanged last month after an upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in May.

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China says its second-quarter GDP growth was 6.7%, meeting expectations

China on Monday posted second-quarter GDP growth of 6.7 percent from a year ago, slightly lower than 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 as Beijing has been cracking down on risky credit amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. The official reading was in line with expectations from analysts polled by Reuters. The headline figure was no surprise as any impact from current U.S.-China trade scuffles will only factor in the second half of the year, said Fraser Howie, an independent analyst.

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Fed Members See Further Rate Hikes Despite Trade Tariff Concerns

Federal Reserve policymakers supported further increases in interest rates as the pace of U.S. economic growth continued "above trend," but concerns grew over the impact of trade tensions on business sentiment, according to the minutes of the Fed's June meeting. "Participants generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with solid expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term," the Fed said in the minutes.

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Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1

The NMI® registered 59.1 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.5 percent in May.

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