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AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 29 June

There were no major data releases from Australia yesterday. "A re-evaluation in the market about the outlook for RBA policy this year and a drop in risk appetite has also impacted the AUD in recent months. In view of our concerns about the impact of trade wars and in view of our expectations of steady RBA policy well into next year, we see further downside potential for AUD/USD towards 0.72 on a 12 mth view," analysts at Rabobank argued.

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EUR/USD Daily Forecast - 28 June

From Eurozone, yesterday, M3 Money Supply figures were released. The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.0% in May 2018 from 3.8% in April, averaging 3.9% in the three months up to May. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 7.5% in May from 7.0% in April. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) was -1.7% in May, compared with -1.9% in April.

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GBP/USD Daily Forecast - 28 June

From the UK, yesterday, CBI Realized Sales figures were released. Retail sales grew at the fastest pace since September 2017 in the year to June, according to our latest monthly Distributive Trades Survey. The survey of 106 firms, consisting of 45 retailers, also revealed that sales volumes were well above average for the time of year, following three months when they were below seasonal averages. Additionally, the survey reported a jump in growth in the volume of orders placed on suppliers.

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AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 28 June

There were no data releases from Australia yesterday. The AUD/USD pair staged a 40-pip recovery in the last minutes and rose above the 0.74 mark after the statement released by the White House helped the market sentiment improve. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on the day at 0.7395. A senior Trump administration official said that President Trump decided against invoking national emergency law on China and added that the investment environment in the U.S. would remain open. Meanwhile, the White House published a press release highlighting that the administration would modify U.S. export controls to strengthen them if commerce department review finds that necessary.

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